Equity is your share of the pot on average if the hand runs to showdown from this point.
If you have 40% equity, it means that in the long run you win about 40% of the time (or win 40% of the pot on average, including ties) against Villain’s hand or range, given the current board.
Equity distribution curve and example hand vs range. Quick visual to grasp what equity represents and how it changes by board.
Equity vs one hand and vs a range
There are two common ways to talk about equity:
Hand vs hand: your exact hand vs Villain’s exact hand.
Range vs range: your range of possible hands vs Villain’s range of possible hands.
Real poker is mostly range vs range, because you usually don’t know Villain’s exact cards.
Why equity matters
Equity connects your poker decisions to math:
Pot odds tell you the minimum equity you need to call.
Equity tells you what you likely have against a hand or range.
If your equity is higher than required equity, calling is usually profitable as a baseline.
Equity is not the same as “chance to hit”
People often confuse equity with “how often I improve.”
Chance to hit is about improving your hand (outs).
Equity is about winning the pot by showdown, which can happen even if you never improve (because you already have the best hand).
Range vs range intuition (simple mental model)
To estimate equity without software, start with this:
Who has the stronger made hands? (top pair+, overpairs, sets)
Who has more strong draws? (nut flush draws, combo draws)
Whose range has more “air”? (hands that missed the board)
How does the board interact with ranges? (high cards, connectedness, suits, paired boards)
Equity shifts when the board favors one range more than the other.
Three common board situations
1) Dry high-card boards
Example: A-7-2 rainbow.
Preflop raiser often has more strong Ax, so they often have higher equity overall.
2) Wet connected boards
Example: J-10-9 with two suits.
Both players can have many draws and strong made hands. Equity can run closer and change fast on turn cards.
3) Paired boards
Example: K-K-5.
Ranges with more Kx (or strong pocket pairs) gain a big equity advantage. Many hands become “drawing thin.”
Examples (hand vs range style)
Example 1: You have a made hand that is often ahead
You have top pair with a good kicker on a dry board.
Your equity is often strong because many of Villain’s hands are worse pairs or missed hands.
Example 2: You have a draw with strong equity
You have a flush draw plus overcards on the flop.
Even if you are behind right now, you can have solid equity because you can win by improving on turn or river.
Example 3: You have a weak draw with reverse implied odds risk
You have a low flush draw when higher flushes are possible.
Your raw chance to complete the flush might be decent, but your real equity against a tight range can be worse because some “wins” turn into losses.
Equity realization (why “raw equity” is not enough)
Having equity doesn’t guarantee you will get that value.
Equity realization is how much of your equity you actually convert into winning money, given position and future betting.
Hands that can continue on many turns and rivers realize equity better.
Hands that often face pressure and fold realize equity worse.
Position usually improves equity realization.
How to use equity in real decisions
Estimate Villain’s range (even roughly).
Estimate your equity (rough intuition or a tool).
Compare to pot odds required equity.
Adjust for implied odds and equity realization.
Mini drill (5 minutes)
Pick a common spot (button vs big blind, or c-bet flop).
Say out loud what hands each player can have (rough ranges).
Ask: who has more strong hands and strong draws on this board?
Guess whether equity is big advantage, small advantage, or close.
Practice equity intuition vs ranges and boards with quick reveal feedback.
Next step: Equity Guesser and Equity Calculator
Equity Guesser trains your intuition: you guess the equity, then see the real answer.
Equity Calculator lets you plug in hands or ranges and learn patterns fast.
Related lessons:
Pot Odds (required equity)
Implied Odds (future value and reverse implied odds)